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Last War Bullseye Loot Simulator

Probability forecasting and Monte Carlo simulations for the Ammo Bonanza event.

About the Bullseye Loot Event

The Bullseye Loot event (commonly known as Ammo Bonanza) is a board mini-game in Last War: Survival where players consume ammo (tickets) to shoot targets on a grid. Releasing arrows allows advancement to higher level boards with increasingly premium loot. Because target rewards are randomized and costs scale up with each shot on a board, budgeting ammo is critical.

Statistical Simulation

This utility runs a 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation in your browser to model the statistical distribution of ammo costs. It calculates:

  • Average (Mean) Ammo Cost required to reach your target board (e.g. Board 4, 5, or 6).
  • Probability Thresholds: The exact chance (e.g. 50%, 80%, 95% confidence intervals) of reaching your goal with a given amount of ammo.
  • Best-case and Worst-case scenarios based on simulated board transitions.

Features

  • Interactive Game Board: Play a simulated board game in real time to test your luck and see how board advancement mechanics operate.
  • Custom Sim Targets: Choose your target board level and run large statistical cohorts instantly.
  • Cost Curve Graphs: Visualize probability densities of ammo consumption.

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